How to Use the Economic Calendar: NFP, CPI and FOMC Explained

Some of the biggest moves in forex, gold and crypto happen in the minutes after a single number is published. The economic calendar tells you when those numbers are coming. Even if you never trade the news, you need to know when it is due, because it can turn a good trade into a bad one in seconds.

Reading the calendar

Each event on the calendar has:

• Time, usually shown in your time zone or UTC
• Currency it affects, such as USD, EUR or GBP
• Impact, usually high, medium or low
• Previous value, from the last release
• Forecast, the average expectation of economists
• Actual, filled in when the number is released

The market reacts mostly to the surprise: the difference between the actual number and the forecast. A strong number that was fully expected may move nothing; a small miss can move a lot.

The big US events

The US dollar is on one side of most forex trades and gold is priced in dollars, so US events move almost everything.

Non-farm payrolls (NFP)

The monthly US jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, normally on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 New York time. It includes the number of jobs added, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Strong numbers usually lift the dollar and weigh on gold; weak numbers do the opposite.

CPI inflation

The Consumer Price Index measures inflation, released monthly, usually around the middle of the month at 8:30 New York time. Traders focus on core CPI, which excludes food and energy. Higher-than-expected inflation suggests the Federal Reserve may keep rates high, which usually supports the dollar and hurts gold, stocks and crypto.

FOMC decision

The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year and announces its interest rate decision at 14:00 New York time, followed by a press conference with the Fed chair at 14:30. The decision itself is often expected; the market moves on the statement, the projections and the tone of the press conference.

Other important US releases

Retail sales, GDP, the PCE inflation index, jobless claims, and ISM business surveys can all move the market, usually less than the three above.

Other central banks

Each major currency has its own key events: ECB decisions for the euro, Bank of England decisions and UK CPI for the pound, Bank of Japan decisions for the yen, RBA decisions and Australian jobs data for the Aussie, and Bank of Canada decisions and Canadian jobs data for the loonie.

How news moves the market

A typical high-impact release plays out like this:

1. Before: spreads widen, liquidity thins, price often goes quiet.
2. The release: a fast spike, sometimes in both directions within seconds, with slippage on orders.
3. The first minutes: the initial move is often partly reversed as traders digest the details.
4. The following hours: if the surprise changes the outlook for interest rates, a real trend can start.

Three ways to handle news

1. Stay out. Close or avoid new positions shortly before high-impact events for the currencies you trade, and re-enter once spreads normalise. Simple and effective.

2. Protect open trades. If you hold a position, reduce the size or move the stop to a level you are comfortable with, knowing that slippage can push the fill further.

3. Trade the reaction, not the number. Wait 15 to 30 minutes for the dust to settle, then trade the direction that holds, using the levels created by the spike.

Trading the release itself, with orders placed seconds before, is the riskiest approach: spreads and slippage make results unpredictable.

The economic calendar in Alice

The economic calendar in the Alice app lists the week's events with impact, forecast and previous values in your own time zone. For key events it explains what a stronger or weaker result usually means for the currency, gold and stocks, and Premium members can ask the AI for a detailed impact analysis. Gold and BTC Deep Analysis also show how gold reacted to recent releases of the same events.

Frequently asked questions

This guide is for education only and is not financial advice. Trading involves a high risk of loss. Test any method on a demo account first and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.